Trump's Retained Support

Despite legal challenges, former President Donald Trump has maintained majority support among Republican voters for the 2024 GOP nomination, with over half backing him (Morning Consult, June 2023).

DeSantis’ Rising Popularity

Ron DeSantis has gained support among GOP voters, benefiting from a decline in Trump's support. DeSantis' backers are typically from higher-income households, suburbs, and of retirement age (Morning Consult, 2023).

Voter Demographics for Trump and DeSantis

Trump supporters are more likely to be women, people of color, or those without a college education. DeSantis draws support from different demographics (Morning Consult, 2023).

Uncommitted Voters' Views

About 26% of Republican voters remain uncommitted to either Trump or DeSantis. This group sees Trump as more self-serving but effective, and is less decided on DeSantis (Morning Consult, 2023).

Trump Supporters’ Dislike of Compromise

Trump's supporters are distinct in their preference for a candidate who aggressively pursues Republican policies, in contrast to backers of other candidates like DeSantis or Nikki Haley (Pew Research Center, 2023).

State-Level Variances

In state-level polling, support for GOP candidates varies, with key early states like Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina showing differing preferences (Morning Consult, December 2023).

Impact of Current Events

Trump’s support has ebbed and flowed with current events, such as the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago and the January 6 investigations (Morning Consult, 2023).

Age and Experience Factors

While Trump's age and controversial actions are considered negatives by some voters, DeSantis's gubernatorial experience is viewed positively (Morning Consult, 2023).

Diverse GOP Field Influence

The presence of multiple candidates in the GOP primaries could influence voter trends, especially in states with a significant number of undecided or independent voters (Morning Consult, December 2023).

Changing Voter Preferences

As the political landscape evolves, conservative voters in the GOP primaries show changing preferences, influenced by factors like candidate personalities, policy positions, and current events (Morning Consult, June 2023; Pew Research Center, 2023).